Walkinshaw30t
Ok great, for baccarat.
Yes that is correct flat betting.
Cheers
Yes that is correct flat betting.
Cheers
Say you go to the casino once everyday and play an even chance game by the following rules: 1) You leave if you win the first bet 2) You leave if you are at anytime 1 unit ahead (after commissions) 3) You leave after 100 hands/ spins. Once the gambler has some time away from gambling and their system begins to regain equilibrium, the confusion and mental fog created by gambling will begin to ease. Therapy can then address the issues that led them to gambling in the first place. For many, gambling is not their first addiction.
endermike
Ok great, for baccarat.
Yes that is correct flat betting.
Cheers
Player bets and six decks ok?
Walkinshaw30t
Player bets and six decks ok?
Yep thats fine
Time will tell
endermike
Based on 1,000,000 independent attempts (about 80 seconds run time):
(results probably good to at least 3 sig figs)
Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .9028
Prob of pushing (quitting with 100 after 100 hands): .0009
Prob of losing (quitting with less than 100 after 100 hands): .0963
Avg loss, given you quit with less than 100 after 100 hands: 11.64
Avg expected return on this strategy (starting with 100 units): 99.78
(results probably good to at least 3 sig figs)
Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .9028
Prob of pushing (quitting with 100 after 100 hands): .0009
Prob of losing (quitting with less than 100 after 100 hands): .0963
Avg loss, given you quit with less than 100 after 100 hands: 11.64
Avg expected return on this strategy (starting with 100 units): 99.78
Walkinshaw30t
Based on 1,000,000 independent attempts (about 80 seconds run time):
(results probably good to at least 3 sig figs)
Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .9028
Prob of pushing (quitting with 100 after 100 hands): .0009
Prob of losing (quitting with less than 100 after 100 hands): .0963
Avg loss, given you quit with less than 100 after 100 hands: 11.64
Avg expected return on this strategy (starting with 100 units): 99.78
Ok great thanks, pretty impressive results!
Would it be too tricky to find results for banker bets?
Or for higher number hand limit?
Time will tell
mustangsally
Ok great, for baccarat.
Yes that is correct flat betting.
when playing against a house edge (-ev) one must bet Bold
that is to bet exactly what is needed to hit your win goal or everything trying
by flat betting one can lose the first bet and never recover to show a 1 unit profit, no matter how large your bankroll and how many lifetime bets you make.
That is the function of the house edge. The random walk with a negative drift concept.
This (bold play) can be exactly and easily calculated in Excel or using a program
and with an even money bet, if losing the first 1 unit bet, your next bet should bet 2, lose that your next bet would be 4 and so on
sounds like a Marty. and it is. Bold Play trying to win just 1 unit
with your max 100 bets
Player at Bac
I show flat betting has a 90.728631% of success by the 100th bet (8 deck) this is verified by a transition matrix
Using just a 9step Marty (max bet of 2560 at a 10min table and a 2001unit bankroll)
we can increase that hit rate to 99.779341%
sounds good huh
yes, that high, but a large hit if you do not win one time in the 9step marty.
and that probability is just for one attempt.
to win 313 times in a row without a loss is a coin flip 50/50 (99.779341%^313)
a loss would be 511 units.
'How to gamble if you must'
there are a few other papers about this concept of Bold Play
and my calculations and simulations show these math guys to be correct.
of course the average bet will now be higher and that seems to point to a higher expected loss
when played many many times, but your win rate is way higher.
more for the interested in those papers
Have fun!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
Walkinshaw30t
more for the interested in those papers
Have fun!
Sally
Thanks
That is quite interesting but a little un practical for my intended purpose.
I will be sure to read up on it never the less!
Cheers
Time will tell
endermike
Ok great thanks, pretty impressive results!
Would it be too tricky to find results for banker bets?
No, once the code is written running it is as simple as me turning Matlab on and using different inputs. Should gambler quit when they are a full unit ahead or is .95 of a unit sufficient?
[Side note: MSally is correct about flat betting not being the best way to ensure quitting ahead. I really like the topic of random walks (which is what the flat betting problem is in math terms) and hence am more than happy to mess around with things like this]
There are actually closed form expressions for these things. However when we are talking about any more than very simple ones we need to resort to computers to solve the closed forms to any accuracy, so I normally just simulate them since then I don't have to worry about recasting the problem and then solving it analytically.
mustangsally
There are actually closed form expressions for these things. However when we are talking about any more than very simple ones...
Yes, simple even money type flat betting can be solved using the Gambler's Ruin formula (GR)It has been around since the 1600s
Problem with that formula is is does not at all factor in time or the number of trials.
My example with a 101 unit bankroll trying to win just 1unit in 100 trials with Player in Bac (Risk of Ruin at 0)
the GR shows a probability of success at 97.1295885% (I think this is more of a limit)
and using a different formula the average number of trials = 141.24 (not a normal distribution)
a Markov chain or simple recursive calculation (using a spreadsheet) shows these probabilities with time as a factor (N=# of trials)
N=50: 87.525532%
N=100: 90.728631%
N=1000: 95.936583% (ruin now possible)
How about a 201unit bankroll and max 200 trials? (Risk of Ruin at 0) Player in Bac and same 1 unit win goal
GR shows a probability of success at 97.2959404%
the average number of trials = 326.91
probabilities with time as a factor (N=# of trials)
N=50: 87.525532%
N=100: 90.728631%
N=200: 92.991191
N=1000: 95.936583% (ruin now possible)
N=3000: 96.832522% (ruin now possible)
one could end up playing a very long time and still not hit that elusive 1 unit win
but have fun trying!
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
endermike
1) Using flat betting on the banker and quitting when 1 full unit (or more) up or 100 hands have been played
2) Based on 10,000,000 independent attempts (about 1200 seconds run time)
(results probably good to 4 sig figs)
Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .8372
Prob of pushing (quitting with between 100 and 101 after 100 hands): .0015
Prob of losing (quitting with less than 100 after 100 hands): .1613
Avg loss, given you quit with less than 100 after 100 hands: 8.05
Avg expected return on this strategy (starting with 100 units): 99.70
2) Based on 10,000,000 independent attempts (about 1200 seconds run time)
(results probably good to 4 sig figs)
Prob of winning (quitting with 101): .8372
Prob of pushing (quitting with between 100 and 101 after 100 hands): .0015
Prob of losing (quitting with less than 100 after 100 hands): .1613
Avg loss, given you quit with less than 100 after 100 hands: 8.05
Avg expected return on this strategy (starting with 100 units): 99.70
FrankScoblete
The typical advice that many gambling writers give to their readers is to “quit while you’re ahead.” Sounds good, but is it possible? Theoretically, yes; but in reality, I seriously doubt it.
I would think if you traveled from New York to Las Vegas as I do; then go to a casino, win your first hand of blackjack or your first roll with the dice or your first slot pull does that mean you are now finished? You are indeed ahead. Should you check out of the hotel and go home? Or just lounge by the pool, have meals, see a show or two, then head home?
Okay, say you go to the casino the next day and again win your first bet. Head home? Go to the pool, eat a meal, see a show?
The dictum “quit while you are ahead” has little relationship to casino gambling. I would think most gamblers give themselves a set period of time (quite flexible too) or a certain number of decisions (hazily sensed) or a “Let me play until I drop” or some such. None of them gives himself the one and done “I’m outta here!” if I win.
Okay, say you lose your first hand, then win two in a row and now you are ahead? Out the door?
What if you never get ahead? Do you keep playing until you lose all your casino money, then your bank accounts, your 401K, the house, your miserable daughter Lulu’s college fund? If you aren’t ahead must you stay the course, that course being your utter destruction? Obviously not.
Language can often sound right but be misleading. Quit while you’re ahead? I think not. You might quit at a certain point and you might be ahead at that point. Or you might quit at a certain point and you might be behind at that point. It might be that you are ahead after 55 minutes and you intended to play one hour but say to yourself, “I think I’ll quit because I am ahead.” But in such a different situation you might also say after 55 minutes, “I’m only a little behind, let me call it a session.”
I doubt there are many gamblers who would quit when they are ahead right off the bat.
I would think if you traveled from New York to Las Vegas as I do; then go to a casino, win your first hand of blackjack or your first roll with the dice or your first slot pull does that mean you are now finished? You are indeed ahead. Should you check out of the hotel and go home? Or just lounge by the pool, have meals, see a show or two, then head home?
Okay, say you go to the casino the next day and again win your first bet. Head home? Go to the pool, eat a meal, see a show?
The dictum “quit while you are ahead” has little relationship to casino gambling. I would think most gamblers give themselves a set period of time (quite flexible too) or a certain number of decisions (hazily sensed) or a “Let me play until I drop” or some such. None of them gives himself the one and done “I’m outta here!” if I win.
Okay, say you lose your first hand, then win two in a row and now you are ahead? Out the door?
What if you never get ahead? Do you keep playing until you lose all your casino money, then your bank accounts, your 401K, the house, your miserable daughter Lulu’s college fund? If you aren’t ahead must you stay the course, that course being your utter destruction? Obviously not.
Language can often sound right but be misleading. Quit while you’re ahead? I think not. You might quit at a certain point and you might be ahead at that point. Or you might quit at a certain point and you might be behind at that point. It might be that you are ahead after 55 minutes and you intended to play one hour but say to yourself, “I think I’ll quit because I am ahead.” But in such a different situation you might also say after 55 minutes, “I’m only a little behind, let me call it a session.”
I doubt there are many gamblers who would quit when they are ahead right off the bat.
teliot
.
Hopefully your point is that quitting while ahead has nothing to do with advantage play. Leaving while ahead is meaningless because having an actual edge implies that you will be ahead more, given that the walk is upwards. Without an edge, the walk is downward, no matter the 'time' between walks. The only instance I know where this is a viable advantage strategy is when playing against loss rebates, in which case there are both win-stopping points and loss-stopping points that depend on game/bankroll/wager/rebate. It may also be a strategy for some cheaters.Honestly Frank, and please correct me, your post sounds like a copy/paste from a book or article you wrote. Its altruistic tone belies its paucity of content.
AlanMendelson
Frank when I hit a few winners that total five thousand or a royal for 20K I quit for that trip. Call it what you want but it's now my money and the casino will have to wait till next time to get it back. And after a big hand at craps it's my money too and I'm not obligated to keep playing. Real money in my pocket is worth more than some AP 2 percent edge.
gts4ever
As the previous poster mentioned, this is not in relation to AP, but the unstated caveat to 'quit while you're ahead' is 'given that you've played enough to be satisfied from the session'. While not earth shattering, this isn't bad advice for the casual gambler. In theory, you experience a loss for each hand you play, but in reality, walking away up $200 vs down $200 has real emotional implications. Even if you are only postponing the rest of your session until later on, you experienced that time in between as a 'winner' and that counts for something.
Mosca
Let's not make it more complicated than it is. Are you gambling for profit, or are you gambling for fun?
If it is for profit, then you should treat it like work. Set a daily goal, and once you hit it, stop. If it takes two minutes, then that's how long you worked that day.
If it is for fun, then you set a time limit and a stop loss limit. You stop at a certain time, or at whatever amount you've allocated for your entertainment budget. Winning and losing are relevant to how much fun you're having, but not an important consideration regarding stopping point, other than the stop loss limit.
If it is for profit, then you should treat it like work. Set a daily goal, and once you hit it, stop. If it takes two minutes, then that's how long you worked that day.
If it is for fun, then you set a time limit and a stop loss limit. You stop at a certain time, or at whatever amount you've allocated for your entertainment budget. Winning and losing are relevant to how much fun you're having, but not an important consideration regarding stopping point, other than the stop loss limit.
odiousgambit
it's now my money
I think it does cement the idea you need to consider it your money, a concept escaping many players ... many like to think, 'I can go for it now, it's house money!'
As a method to 'beat the house' it is worthless, however.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
MrV
The operative word here is 'quit:' in what context?
On the fairly rare occasions that I make a lot of money at craps on one shooter, I typically 'quit' / cash out immediately after the hot roll finishes; same thing with a big hit at slots.
The thing is, I don't quit for the day, or the trip: I just close out that session, take a break, and fire up again later.
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
On the fairly rare occasions that I make a lot of money at craps on one shooter, I typically 'quit' / cash out immediately after the hot roll finishes; same thing with a big hit at slots.
The thing is, I don't quit for the day, or the trip: I just close out that session, take a break, and fire up again later.
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
Mission146
The operative word here is 'quit:' in what context?
On the fairly rare occasions that I make a lot of money at craps on one shooter, I typically 'quit' / cash out immediately after the hot roll finishes; same thing with a big hit at slots.
The thing is, I don't quit for the day, or the trip: I just close out that session, take a break, and fire up again later.
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
It's a tough question, and it would be even tougher to answer in the context of someone staying there. For me, 'Quitting,' simply occurs whenever I leave the casino. I've had two handpays, lifetime, from Slot Machines, and in both of those cases, I kept going until the handpay got there. My first handpay was at a $5.00 Credit machine, though, so I switched machines and told them where they could find me.
If I have a really good hit, I'll usually play exactly down to the nearest multiple of something (depending on what the Max Bet is at whatever I am playing...or depending on what I am betting at Video Keno---usually less than Max---if it makes no difference with the ER) of usually $25, $50 or $100. If I'm playing VK for ultra-low stakes, it might even be a multiple of $5.00 or $1.00!
My win goal is the same as my multiple, but I see no reason to strictly limit my win, I'll play $0.01/Credit, 1 Line, 1 Credit per Line, if I have $200.01 on my ticket and am playing down to $200.00 or up to $225.00, for example.
I don't stick as strictly to the multiple thing for Table Games, because I typically get tired of playing before I would hit any kind of multiple, anyway. I should also mention that the multiple would often necessitate not taking the Max Odds at Craps, so no thanks on that. Tips are also a consideration, since it is strictly for entertainment, I tip the dealers (no bragging, just being honest) EXTREMELY well for my level of play, so there are a number of times I'd have been a good measure ahead and have left neither up or down, after tips.
In the event of a great run at Craps, and after that shooter Sevens-Out, I'll give the next shooter a chance and keep playing if he wins the first one. Basically, I keep playing until the first new shooter loses his first hand, then I'm done.
Vultures can't be choosers.
How To Quit Gambling While Ahead Without
gr8player
Probably just a superstitious form of money management.
Superstition, MrV? I think not. And I think that to relegate 'qutting while ahead' to superstitious status is to demean its inherent importance.
Look, we all are very well aware that the house edge affects each and every one of our bets, regardless of the timing of their placements.
The house edge is there. Get past it. And part of getting past it is LEARNING HOW TO WIN. How to accept a win. Any win.
Does that, alone, put more money into our pockets, somehow negating the house edge? Nope, sorry. Their edge remains.
BUUUTTTT, what is to be said of our MENTALITY? Our frames of mind.
Quitting while ahead, leaving with more chips than you bought-in for, WINNING, is a learnt art. It's as much a 'positive reinforcement' as Pavlov's dog ever dealt with.
Winning is a feeling. A success story. A story that repeats itself time and time again. And always....ALWAYS....with a happy ending. Now, who in this wide wide world of gambling does not seek that?
But, you've got to train yourself to do it. Why? Because, my friends, it doesn't come nearly as naturally as GREED does.
How To Quit Gambling While Ahead Lyrics
Winning is a frame of mind. A mentality. An attitude. An attitude that ensures the player that, at the very least, he's doing all he can to enable himself to 'come out ahead' at this session.Makes no nevermind that he's got to do it all over again at his next session. He's used to it, and expects it. It's now become, for him, a habit. A rather addictive habit.
How To Quit Gambling Addiction
Now, again, the house edge is there...today when I bet, tomorrow when I bet, and the day after that.
But the house edge doesn't walk with me to cashier's cage when I've got more chips in my pocket than I bought-in for. Rather, it's only me and my 'right frame of mind', my 'winning mentality', my 'positive reinforcement', all pointing out to me as to JUST HOW RIGHT I AM ABOUT MY APPROACH.
The house edge is math. Leave it at the table where it belongs. Quitting while you're ahead will put the dollars in your pocket, where it belongs.
How To Quit Gambling While Ahead Video
Mosca
Unless you quit FOREVER, you didn't really quit, did you? No more lottery tickets, no more pull tabs at the church picnic, NOTHING.
How Can I Stop Gambling
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